Will Caleb Williams have best rookie debut? Impact players? QBs under pressure?-ZoomTech News

Because the NFL’s one hundred and fifth season commences, historical past reminds us that just about something is feasible. Simply take into account that for 34 straight seasons, not less than 4 groups have made the playoffs after not making it the yr earlier than. In 20 of the previous 21 seasons, not less than two groups have gained their divisions the season after lacking the playoffs. And in 19 of the previous 21 seasons, not less than one group has gone from worst to first in its division.

So does that imply some shock group will cease the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs from three-peating? Let’s take it one step at a time, beginning with the FOX Sports activities NFL specialists answering 5 burning questions heading into Week 1.

What would success appear to be this season for the three rookie quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix — making their NFL debuts this weekend?

Greg Auman: C.J. Stroud set the bar unfairly excessive for a rookie final season. If Williams, Daniels or Nix can lead his group to the playoffs, not to mention a playoff win, it’s going to be one of many higher tales of the season. Stroud had 23 touchdowns in opposition to 5 interceptions as a rookie. None of this yr’s beginning trio is probably going to try this. If any of them throw for 20-plus touchdowns with single-digit interceptions, name it a hit.

For this week, we’ll set the bar low. Think about that 32 first-round picks have made their first profession begin prior to now 10 years, and simply six of them have thrown a number of touchdowns and averted a number of interceptions of their debut. That is lower than 20%. Now, the six aren’t precisely an endorsement for “this proves you may be an NFL celebrity.” The checklist contains Zach Wilson in 2021, Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones in 2019, Sam Darnold in 2018, Carson Wentz in 2016 and Marcus Mariota in 2014. Solely half of them are nonetheless beginning quarterbacks in 2024.

For this week, how about simply win? First-round picks of their first profession begins have misplaced 10 straight video games. That is Anthony Richardson, Stroud, Bryce Younger, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Wilson. Ten in a row! The final first-rounder to win his first NFL begin was Tua Tagovailoa in November 2020. The final one to win in Week 1? Darnold, six full years in the past. And even he threw a pick-six on his first NFL go. Good luck, rookies.

Henry McKenna: Every rookie faces totally different expectations. However largely, I am with Greg: How about simply win?

Caleb Williams might need a top-10 offensive line and a top-10 group of talent gamers after a busy offseason by Bears GM Ryan Poles. With that in thoughts, Williams & Co. ought to beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. I feel persons are anticipating Williams to indicate some flashes of Patrick Mahomes. We all know Williams will develop right into a flashy sport. However for now, I might like him to have a zero-turnover sport — simply to indicate he can management an NFL sport.

Jayden Daniels has a worse supporting forged and a more durable matchup in opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who completed within the prime 10 in sacks final season. The Washington Commanders are going to wrestle with go safety all season — and Week 1 can be no exception. I wish to see Daniels function comfortably within the pocket, like he did in faculty. I wish to see him escape the pocket when it collapses, like he did in faculty. And in contrast to what he did in faculty, I wish to see Daniels keep away from getting hit — by sliding, throwing the ball away and utilizing the sideline.

As for Bo Nix, he appeared extraordinarily competent in preseason. However after the Broncos’ brutal 2023 season, we’d merely need to hope that Nix finishes this debut with three interceptions or fewer in opposition to the Seahawks in Seattle. Nix will not be going through these vanilla coverages he noticed through the preseason. It is about to get sooner and much, much more sophisticated. I do know Sean Payton loves this child, however I am simply hoping to see Nix preserve his touchdown-to-turnover ratio on the optimistic (and, as talked about, get a win).

Which veteran QB enters the season beneath essentially the most stress and why: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold? 

McKenna: I am taking Daniel Jones, as a result of I am mainly working beneath the idea that Russ is cooked. He is a placeholder till Justin Fields is prepared. Jones, nonetheless, nonetheless has an opportunity. Brian Daboll continues to be a superb offensive thoughts. The Giants nonetheless have an elite left sort out in Andrew Thomas (when/if he is wholesome), they usually drafted a receiver, Malik Nabers, who ought to immediately step in as a bona-fide No. 1. Even so, I am unsure they’ve arrange Jones for achievement, even in his make-or-break yr. On the plus facet, if Jones excels, he can level to what he is carried out properly regardless of opposed circumstances. It is simply powerful to see issues going properly for him this season.

Ralph Vacchiano: Effectively, I simply wrote about how Daniel Jones’ $160 million contract is a “cut price” so I am unable to flip the warmth up on him now, can I? Henry is true that Jones is going through a make-or-break yr. I do suppose he is arrange for achievement, although — not less than extra so than he has been prior to now. However I am choosing Russell Wilson as a result of he is 35 — eight years older than Jones — and he is coming off three seasons which have ranged from mediocre to unhealthy. His final yr at a prime stage was 2020. He in some way received a lifeline from the Steelers, but when he would not do it now, no person’s going to suppose he is received any type of future. At the least Jones has youth on his facet. 

There’s additionally one different huge stress level with Wilson: The presence of Justin Fields on the Steelers’ roster. Jones most likely has a season to show himself in New York. Wilson, taking up a group that went 10-7 with Kenny Pickett final season, could solely have just a few weeks. The clock is ticking quick on his NFL profession.

What’s the perfect matchup this Sunday and why?

Eric D. Williams: Cowboys at Browns. Dak Prescott will get his first alternative to indicate he is value $60 million yearly taking part in in opposition to the most effective defenses within the league in America’s Recreation of the Week on FOX (4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday).

Prescott was an MVP finalist final season earlier than he and the Cowboys laid an egg in an embarrassing dwelling playoff loss in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers. He led the NFL with 36 landing passes, ranked second with a 105.9 score and third with 4,516 go yards. Now, as he enters the ultimate yr of his contract, Prescott will get an opportunity to showcase himself to the league, beginning with the Browns. 

Whereas the offseason in Dallas was dominated by contract speak involving CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons and Prescott, the Cowboys can now flip their focus to chasing one other NFC East division title. In the event that they win it, they’d grow to be the primary group to repeat as division champs because the Philadelphia Eagles in 2003-04.

For Cleveland, $230 million quarterback Deshaun Watson additionally has one thing to show — that he can keep wholesome and eventually present the group with a decent return on its funding. Watson has performed simply 12 video games in two years. Final yr, Joe Flacco got here off his sofa to guide Cleveland to the postseason instead of an injured Watson. Can Watson keep wholesome and do the identical for the Browns in 2024?

Ben Arthur: The Texans-Colts Week 18 showdown final season, with the AFC South on the road, was a thriller. I am anticipating their Week 1 matchup to convey much more pleasure. Past the added depth of this being a division matchup, smack speak was traded early within the offseason between Houston’s C.J. Stroud and Indianapolis’ Zaire Franklin, stoking the flames of the rivalry.

Many league observers assume the Texans will run away with the AFC South, however the Colts appear to be the group with essentially the most upside to problem them — and make the playoffs for the primary time since 2020. Famous person operating again Jonathan Taylor returns at full power (he had 188 dashing yards on 6.2 yards per carry within the Week 18 showdown final season) and Anthony Richardson is totally wholesome. 

And keep in mind, Stroud did not beat Richardson as a rookie. Of their lone matchup, Week 2 of final season in Houston, the Colts gained 31-20 — with Richardson taking part in simply 32 snaps.

Which participant who switched groups within the offseason will make the most important influence this yr?

Arthur: Derrick Henry to the Ravens. 

Look, I get it: Baltimore already had the league’s prime dashing offense final yr. However Henry’s addition provides a complete new wrinkle to it, one that may thrust opposing defenses into fixed battle. Defending learn choices, RPOs, play-action and attracts will make issues considerably harder for opponents. 

Regardless of being 30, Henry continues to be taking part in at a excessive stage. He is led the NFL in carries back-to-back seasons. With the Titans final season, he had greater than 1,100 dashing yards taking part in behind arguably the worst offensive line within the NFL. 

The Lamar Jackson-Henry tandem has the potential to grow to be some of the deadly dashing assaults ever — and get Jackson, a two-time league MVP, to his first Tremendous Bowl.

Williams: Sure, the Atlanta Falcons precipitated some head-scratching across the league by deciding on Michael Penix Jr. No. 8 total on this yr’s draft after signing Kirk Cousins in free company. Cousins, nonetheless, makes Atlanta the frontrunner to win the NFC South this yr.

New head coach Raheem Morris understands the worth of a veteran signal-caller from his time with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay with the Los Angeles Rams. And in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, the Falcons have somebody on the controls who will particularly cater the scheme to Cousins’ talent set.

Sure, there are issues about Cousins staying wholesome as he returns from an Achilles tendon tear, which ended his 2023 season and his time with the Minnesota Vikings. However even at age 36, Cousins stays one of many extra environment friendly quarterbacks within the league. And with the quantity of expertise Atlanta has on offense with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London, all Cousins should do is be some extent guard and get the ball to his playmakers on time and in area.

McKenna: Stefon Diggs goes to assist the Texans meet excessive expectations. Everyone seems to be anticipating this Houston offense to guide the group into the postseason. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is anticipated to be an MVP candidate. If not for Diggs, I might anticipate the Texans to disappoint. However as a result of Houston added one of many NFL’s prime receivers, I genuinely imagine the Texans can keep away from regression. 

Diggs helped make Josh Allen into the quarterback he’s right this moment. One thing comparable will occur in Houston, the place Stroud managed to ship the most effective statistical seasons by a rookie QB in NFL historical past. And Diggs most likely will not get the credit score he deserves — as a result of the Texans, if they’re as profitable as everybody expects, will merely meet the hype. However that is so, so troublesome within the NFL. Simply ask the Eagles final yr.

Which new NFL head coach could have the perfect debut and which one will desire a do-over by Sunday night time?

Vacchiano: The hiring of Mike Macdonald in Seattle flew a bit beneath the radar within the offseason, however he was an in-demand assistant who’s taking up a fairly good group. The Seahawks have numerous sturdy weapons on offense and a rebuilt protection and simply missed the playoffs a yr in the past. Even higher, they open at dwelling in opposition to the Denver Broncos, who’re a large number of a group beginning a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. Macdonald is completely arrange for some Week 1 success. 

The identical cannot be mentioned of Jerod Mayo, who will make his Patriots debut in Invoice Belichick’s shadow on the highway in opposition to a Bengals group that will get quarterback Joe Burrow again. Mayo can be good for New England finally, however the group is within the early phases of a rebuilding venture. It is going to be a really lengthy yr for Mayo and the Patriots, and if the Bengals are the AFC energy many suppose they’re, Mayo’s debut goes to actually harm.

Williams: It is Raiders week for the Los Angeles Chargers, which suggests an intense give attention to beating their hated AFC West rivals — and attempting to neglect final season’s humbling 63-21 loss to Las Vegas that led to the firing of head coach Brandon Staley and common supervisor Tom Telesco.

New head coach Jim Harbaugh was introduced in to construct a sustainable profitable tradition for the Bolts. He has created readability within the group and added credibility due to his monitor report of profitable wherever he goes.

[READ MORE: Can Jim Harbaugh turn the Chargers into winners? He’s done it everywhere else]

Telesco, now the Raiders’ common supervisor, faces his former group for the primary time. He had made interim coach Antonio Pierce full-time, signed veteran quarterback Gardner Minshew and put in a brand new RB1 in Zamir White. Even with the enhancements, the Raiders could need to depend on a proficient protection led by Professional Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby.

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These insights have been supplied by:

NFL reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFL reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
NFL reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFL reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFL reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)

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