Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo turns into eligible to signal a contract extension on Friday, his first likelihood to recommit to the franchise since he signed a supermax extension earlier than the 2020-21 season.
Antetokounmpo nonetheless has two years remaining on his contract, plus a participant choice for a 3rd yr, however his timeline towards free company is ticking shortly. For now, Antetokounmpo, 28, stays dedicated to the Bucks, however he has reiterated this offseason that his loyalty to the group is contingent on the crew remaining in championship competition.
Each season of Antetokounmpo’s profession comes with heightened expectations. Already a two-time MVP, he averaged a career-high 31.1 factors, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists through the 2022-23 season and completed third in MVP voting.
But, the Bucks are coming off a disappointing end in final yr’s postseason, going from the No. 1 general seed within the playoffs to dropping in 5 video games to the Miami Warmth within the first spherical, a collection through which Antetokounmpo missed two video games due to a again harm.
Milwaukee is about to enter some of the pivotal stretches in franchise historical past. From the second Antetokounmpo turns into eligible to signal an extension till the day he indicators it or alerts his intentions to not, all eyes across the league are going to be monitoring his contract standing intently.
Tim Bontemps, Jamal Collier and Bobby Marks teamed as much as break down the largest questions dealing with Antetokounmpo and the Bucks as they enter this significant interval.
What’s his present contractual standing?
Antetokounmpo signed a five-year, $228 million supermax extension in December 2020 and is underneath contract for this season and subsequent, with a participant choice for the 2025-26 season. If he declines it, he would turn out to be an unrestricted free agent for the primary time.
2023-24: $45.6M
2024-25: $48.8M
2025-26: $51.9M (Participant choice)
The $45.6 million wage this season represents 33.55% of the Bucks’ wage cap, under the utmost wage for a participant that has 10 years of service or extra. That could be a results of the wage cap remaining flat in 2020-21 and growing solely 3% in 2021-22, the primary yr of the extension, resulting from income losses through the COVID-19 pandemic. Antetokounmpo would be the seventh-highest paid participant within the NBA this season, behind Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Joel Embiid and Bradley Beal.
What extension is he eligible to signal?
With two years remaining on his contract earlier than he may be an unrestricted free agent, Antetokounmpo is eligible to signal a three-year extension value roughly $169 million.
The extension, nonetheless, is value solely $117 million in new cash as a result of his $51.9 million participant choice would get replaced with a wage beginning of $52.2 million in 2025-26.
The extension may enhance to $186 million if the wage cap will increase by 10% in each 2024-25 and 2025-26. The NBA despatched a memo to groups in late June, projecting the cap growing 4.4% in 2024-25.
As a result of Antetokounmpo is taken into account to have two years left on his contract (the participant choice doesn’t rely), the deadline for him to signal an extension is Oct. 23, the final day earlier than the beginning of the common season.
Is he higher off ready to signal subsequent summer time?
In some ways, sure.
First, he can see the place Milwaukee’s roster stands, simply as he did earlier than signing his present contract, when he waited for the Bucks to commerce for Jrue Holiday earlier than committing his future to Milwaukee. How the Bucks end in 2023-24 may also be a major issue.
Second, he can assure himself considerably extra money, as he can signal a four-year extension value roughly $234 million (may enhance to $258 million if the cap will increase 10%) subsequent summer time, versus a three-year extension this yr. He can signal that extension any time from July 6, 2024 via June 30, 2025.
Has he stated something about signing an extension?
For years, Antetokounmpo had expressed an curiosity in remaining in Milwaukee for his whole profession.
“Kobe [Bryant] did it. Tim Duncan did it. Dirk Nowitzki did it. I simply need to be a kind of guys … that stays for the town, play for the town for 20 years,” Antetokounmpo informed ESPN in 2018.
Nonetheless, his tune modified dramatically throughout an interview with the New York Instances final month, through which Antetokounmpo made it clear his loyalty would include situations.
“Subsequent summer time it might make extra sense for each events. Even then, I do not know,” Antetokounmpo stated about signing an extension. “I’d not be the perfect model of myself if I did not know that everyone’s on the identical web page, all people’s going for a championship, all people’s going to sacrifice time away from their household like I do. And if I do not really feel that, I am not signing.”
He backed that up last week on the “48 Minutes” podcast, saying “I am a Milwaukee Buck, however most significantly I am a winner. … If there’s a higher scenario for me to win the Larry O’Brien [Trophy] I’ve to take that higher scenario.”
How have the Bucks approached this?
Antetokounmpo’s stance has been steadfast for years: He expects to be on a crew that’s persistently in competition for championships. After final season’s gorgeous first-round exit, the Bucks fired coach Mike Budenholzer and changed him with former Toronto Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin. Milwaukee additionally re-signed longtime franchise pillars Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. Middleton’s contract purposely aligns with Antetokounmpo’s: two years, plus a participant choice in 2025-26.
Antetokounmpo’s public feedback final month will probably put vital stress on the franchise to win this season, and the Bucks enter the 2023-24 season with the fourth-best odds to win the title in line with Caesars Sportsbook.
“Giannis and I are on the identical web page,” Griffin stated throughout a charity golf outing on Sept. 11. “He needs to win, and I need to win. It is that straightforward. I respect him. I respect what he is achieved on this league. We’re right here collectively to win. I’ve no drawback with that. I believe it is an excellent partnership. We will lead the crew collectively.”
What’s the state of the remainder of the Bucks’ roster?
With Middleton and Lopez locked up for the subsequent couple of seasons after signing new offers this summer time, the opposite massive query to reply concerning Antetokounmpo’s supporting forged is Vacation, who can turn out to be an unrestricted free agent subsequent summer time. Vacation may also be eligible for a contract extension starting Feb. 22. A four-year, $223 million extension would begin in 2024-25 and would see Vacation earn $61.6 million on the age of 37 in 2027-28. Due to the Over-38 rule, Vacation shouldn’t be allowed to signal a five-year contract with Milwaukee if he declines his participant choice and turns into a free agent in 2024.
The Bucks would have solely the $12.9 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to exchange Vacation if he leaves in free company, so if Milwaukee needs to stay a title contender transferring ahead, it is going to nearly definitely should hold Vacation within the fold.
How for much longer will this crew be in championship competition even when Antetokounmpo stays?
It is unclear. The Bucks have gained 271 video games for the reason that begin of the 2018-19 season, essentially the most within the NBA in that span. They have been to 2 Japanese Convention Finals, gained the title in 2021, and had superior within the playoffs for 4 consecutive seasons previous to final season’s stunning first-round upset.
That stated, adjustments might be on the horizon. There is not a single participant who has a contract for the 2025-26 season on the roster, although a number of gamers (Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton) all have choices for that season.
Past that, it is a group of expertise that’s getting older out of its prime. Lopez is 35. Vacation is 33. Middleton is 32. And there is not a lot youth arising behind them on the roster, an comprehensible consequence of being a veteran crew chasing a championship that has sacrificed draft capital in trades to enhance the roster, most notably for Vacation.
Milwaukee has already traded its 2025 and 2027 first-round picks, and the New Orleans Pelicans personal swap rights on the picks in 2024 and 2026. The Bucks solely have one first-round choose (both 2029 or 2030) out there to commerce. To make issues worse, Milwaukee has one second-round choose (2024 from Indiana) within the subsequent seven years.
How does the brand new collective bargaining settlement affect Milwaukee?
The Bucks have a projected $182 million payroll this season and weren’t allowed to make use of the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception as a result of they have been thought-about a second-apron crew. The identical rule holds true subsequent offseason if the Bucks are as soon as once more over the second apron, which they undertaking to be if they maintain Vacation.
The longer the Bucks stay above the second apron, the extra restrictive the penalties turn out to be, together with the lack to ship money in a commerce, the lack to combination contracts for commerce matching functions, and the potential freezing of future draft picks.
That might make it significantly tougher to construct a championship roster round Antetokounmpo as a few of these restrictions take impact in future years, until the Bucks discover a option to decrease their general payroll with out sacrificing expertise.
What occurs if Antetokounmpo will not lengthen his contract subsequent summer time?
To search out the closest analog to Milwaukee’s scenario, take into account the scenario the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder discovered themselves in with Kevin Durant from 2014 to 2016.
There have been no monetary incentives for Durant to increase along with his authentic crew, and so he reached unrestricted free company and subsequently signed with the Golden State Warriors in 2016. That call ushered within the thought of the supermax contract extension within the collective bargaining settlement that went into impact in 2017, which was designed to offer groups just like the Bucks some stage of readability on what a star of Antetokounmpo’s magnitude will resolve to do earlier than he can go away the crew for nothing as a free agent.
No participant of Antetokounmpo’s stature within the intervening six years has been on this place and never signed an extension. Whereas Milwaukee may financial institution on Antetokounmpo preferring the monetary incentives to signal subsequent summer time to persuade themselves to not commerce him this season, if issues go improper — for instance, if Vacation does not lengthen or re-sign and the crew has one other disappointing end — the Bucks may at the least start exploring commerce choices for Antetokounmpo with a watch in direction of retooling the roster for the long run.
Which different groups are retaining an in depth eye on the Antetokounmpo scenario?
It is nonetheless early, so Milwaukee hasn’t crossed the bridge of buying and selling Antetokounmpo simply but, however when a participant of his expertise stage has query marks about his future, groups across the league start to behave accordingly in case he turns into out there. Rather a lot may hinge on whether or not he makes particular requests, like taking part in in a bigger market, as some gamers have when asking for a commerce not too long ago.
A couple of preliminary groups, who on the very least, can be watching this case intently, may embrace the New Orleans Pelicans, Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors, in line with Zach Lowe and Ramona Shelburne throughout a current episode of the Lowe Publish podcast. Every of these groups have a mixture of intriguing younger gamers and priceless draft picks out there that might be packaged within the form of commerce it might theoretically take to land Antetokounmpo.