The Week 17 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with an excellent pair of Christmas matchups (Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans) and a Thursday night time NFC showdown (Seahawks-Bears). We’ve got you lined with all the pieces it is advisable know for the opening three video games.
Our NFL Nation reporters carry us what to know for each contest, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every recreation. The ESPN Analysis staff gives a serious stat to know and a betting nugget for every matchup, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection and a take a look at the playoff image. NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks out game-plan keys, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds X elements. Lastly, three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us closing rating picks for the three video games.
Let’s begin with the Chiefs and Steelers, who each have an opportunity to enhance their AFC playoff standing with a win Wednesday.
Soar to a matchup:
KC-PIT | BAL-HOU | SEA-CHI
Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET | Netflix | ESPN BET: KC -3 (43.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to observe: Cross safety has been an issue for the Chiefs, who’re on their fourth beginning left sort out of the season and may not have proper sort out Jawaan Taylor on Christmas due to a knee damage. That is hardly very best towards the Steelers and T.J. Watt, significantly due to Patrick Mahomes‘ excessive ankle sprain. The one constructive for Kansas Metropolis is it activated receiver Hollywood Brown on Saturday, and he made a few clutch catches in his first recreation again from a preseason sternoclavicular damage. — Adam Teicher
Steelers storyline to observe: The Steelers entered Saturday’s 34-17 loss to the Ravens with one wholesome beginning cornerback in Joey Porter Jr. They left Baltimore with a slew of replacements enjoying many of the snaps. Donte Jackson (again) missed the sport, and a knee damage saved Porter out for many of the second half. However Santa Claus may carry some items to Pittsburgh. Jackson has an actual likelihood to play, and large receiver George Pickens and security DeShon Elliott could possibly be again within the fold. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Mahomes, taking up Mike Tomlin, enters this recreation with a 22-5 file (81.5% win price) towards head coaches who’ve gained the Tremendous Bowl. That is the second-highest profitable share by any beginning quarterback in such video games, trailing solely Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (82.4%). — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Steelers edge rushers Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig will mix for at the very least 5 pressures. They’re each harmful cross rushers and could possibly be going through guard Joe Thuney having to play left sort out or D.J. Humphries getting back from damage. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs will want solutions for Cowl 3. Tomlin’s protection has performed Cowl 3 on 29.3% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fourth-highest price within the league. Given these tendencies, search for Reid to arrange Mahomes with three-level flood ideas that create intermediate throwing home windows, utilizing tight finish Travis Kelce as the first goal. — Bowen
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field benefit in the event that they win or the Payments lose to the Jets on Sunday. The Steelers’ best path to profitable the AFC North is profitable their subsequent two video games and the Ravens dropping out. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Chiefs large receiver Xavier Worthy. He ran the second-most routes for the Chiefs in Week 16, trailing solely Kelce. Worthy has had 9 or extra touches and at the very least 19 fantasy factors in back-to-back video games. He is likely one of the Chiefs’ prime two receiving choices and may stay busy towards a Steelers protection that permits the Tenth-most receiving yards per recreation to receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are now not the favourite to win the AFC North, per ESPN BET. Pittsburgh has +120 odds, whereas Baltimore leads at -155. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Chiefs 28, Steelers 20
Moody’s choose: Chiefs 23, Steelers 16
Walder’s choose: Chiefs 24, Steelers 23
FPI prediction: KC, 55.6% (by a median of two.3 factors)
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Netflix | ESPN BET: BAL -5 (46.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to observe: Ex-Titans working again Derrick Henry will look to proceed his 2024 success towards the Texans, his former AFC South rival. He has produced 102.2 speeding yards per recreation versus Houston, which is his fifth-highest common towards any staff. Houston ranks Tenth in run protection (106.8 yards allowed per recreation) this season, however the Texans allowed 124 yards on the bottom to Kansas Metropolis on Sunday. Henry can be coming off a season-high 162 speeding yards towards the Steelers. — Jamison Hensley
Texans storyline to observe: The Texans are 2-12 towards Baltimore in franchise historical past and had their playoff run ended by the Ravens final season. This matchup is a major alternative for Houston to point out that it has cast the expertise hole and may go head-to-head with a staff that reached the AFC Championship Recreation final season with an MVP-caliber quarterback in Lamar Jackson. However the Texans will probably be with out wideout Tank Dell, who’s out for the season after dislocating his kneecap and tearing his ACL towards the Chiefs. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans have performed the Ravens 4 occasions since 2019, and Houston has been outscored by a median of twenty-two.8 factors per recreation. Amongst groups which have met at the very least 4 occasions in that span, that’s the largest common points-per-game differential versus a single opponent. — ESPN Analysis
1:43
Mark Andrews to McAfee: Lamar is enjoying higher than ever
Ravens tight finish Mark Andrews joins “The Pat McAfee Present” and shares his pleasure about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry’s play and the staff’s constructive momentum.
Daring prediction: The Ravens will maintain the Texans beneath 14 factors. From Weeks 1-9, the Ravens might barely cease the cross, rating twenty eighth in EPA allowed per dropback. However from Week 10 on, they rank first in the identical class. The Texans do not have an excellent floor recreation, regardless of a powerful begin to the season by Joe Mixon. I count on they will battle to maneuver the ball towards Baltimore. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: The Texans might want to create explosive performs within the cross recreation versus Baltimore, so let’s give attention to the early down play-action ideas in Bobby Slowik’s system. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has accomplished 15 passes of 20 or extra air yards this season on first- and second-down play-action throws (Tenth-most within the league). Stroud can assault the schemed zone voids in the course of the sector, with large receiver Nico Collins working the deep in-breakers. — Bowen
What’s at stake: The Ravens have a official shot at profitable the AFC North title by three eventualities over the subsequent two weeks. Baltimore must win its final two and Pittsburgh to lose one in every of its final two. Or in Week 18, the Ravens have to beat the Browns and the Steelers to lose to the Bengals. Or Baltimore must win one in every of its final two video games and Pittsburgh to lose out. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Collins. After accidents to Stefon Diggs and Dell, Collins, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are the Texans’ prime three receivers. Collins has been phenomenal, averaging 8.8 targets and 18.7 fantasy factors per recreation this season. It is secure to say he’ll see an enormous goal share towards the Ravens, contemplating the circumstances. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Jackson entered final week’s matchup towards the Steelers with +650 odds to win NFL MVP, per ESPN Guess. His probabilities elevated to +375 after the Week 16 video games. Buffalo’s Josh Allen nonetheless leads at -500. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Ravens 30, Texans 20
Moody’s choose: Ravens 27, Texans 24
Walder’s choose: Ravens 27, Texans 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.7% (by a median of 4.9 factors)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: SEA -3.5 (43.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to observe: The Seahawks are averaging 91.9 speeding yards per recreation, the third fewest within the NFL. They do not run it typically or effectively, rating thirtieth in designed rush price beneath first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Life may not get simpler for his or her run recreation towards Chicago now that Kenneth Walker III is harm once more. The Seahawks’ lead again returned Sunday from a calf damage that sidelined him for 2 video games however then he suffered an ankle damage, which places his availability in query on a brief week. — Brady Henderson
Bears storyline to observe: Accidents to left sort out Braxton Jones and left guard Teven Jenkins pressured the Bears to deploy their fifteenth completely different offensive line mixture in a blowout loss to the Lions. Jones is finished for the season attributable to a extreme left ankle damage, so Chicago now will depend on backups to guard Caleb Williams‘ blindside amid a two-month dropping streak. If Chicago loses its subsequent two video games, its 11 consecutive losses in a season will rank fourth behind the 2001 Panthers (15 straight), 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns (each 16 straight). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Williams’ nine-game dropping streak is the second longest by any rookie quarterback taken No. 1 total since 1950. He trails solely Troy Aikman, who went 0-11 throughout his 1989 rookie marketing campaign with the Cowboys. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Seahawks edge Uchenna Nwosu will file his first sack of the season. Nwosu’s enjoying time has progressively elevated since being activated off injured reserve in Week 14. Although he has no sacks in 4 video games, he has a 17% cross rush win price at edge (roughly common) and sure will see loads of Bears backup left sort out Larry Borom on Thursday. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: The Seattle protection has performed man protection on 47.4% of opponent dropbacks this season, the eleventh most within the league. That price might climb towards Williams, who has averaged simply 5.4 yards per try and posted a 53.6 QBR versus man protection this season. And the Seahawks have the personnel within the secondary to problem the Bears’ large receivers. — Bowen
What’s at stake: Seattle’s solely path to the playoffs is by profitable the NFC West. That may occur over the subsequent two weeks if the Rams lose their final two video games or if the Seahawks win out and clinch energy of victory (SOV) over Los Angeles. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Seahawks large receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Seattle’s playoff hopes on the road, the second-year receiver could possibly be key. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.5 targets and 19.2 fantasy factors per recreation. The Bears’ protection permits the Tenth-most passing yards per recreation, organising an excellent alternative for the Seahawks to assault by the air. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: After dropping 34-17 to the Lions, the Bears at the moment are 4-2 ATS of their previous six as dwelling underdogs. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Seahawks 27, Bears 20
Moody’s choose: Seahawks 26, Bears 19
Walder’s choose: Seahawks 24, Bears 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 50.1% (by a median of 0.1 factors)