The divisional playoff spherical for the 2024 NFL season has 4 nice matchups, and now we have you lined with what it’s essential to know. On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes‘ Chiefs tackle C.J. Stroud and the Texans to get issues began. Then the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels tries to remain scorching towards the Lions. On Sunday, the Rams journey to Philadelphia to face Saquon Barkley and his Eagles. And at last, it is Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson in Buffalo — a showdown of MVP candidates for an opportunity to go to the AFC Championship Recreation.
Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the largest keys to all 4 video games, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X issue to observe, and employees author Kevin Seifert tells us what to know concerning the officiating. The ESPN Analysis group additionally supplies an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Lastly, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us closing rating picks for each recreation.
Every part you wish to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff soccer. Let’s get into the complete divisional slate.
Leap to a matchup:
HOU-KC | WSH-DET
LAR-PHI | BAL-BUF
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: KC -8 (41.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to observe: The Texans’ protection sacked quarterback Patrick Mahomes solely as soon as in a Week 16 loss, despite the fact that Houston was tied for fourth in sacks this season (49). This week, the move rush should come alive to present the Texans an opportunity for the upset. On the flip aspect, Houston’s offense should circulation by working again Joe Mixon — if he performs. Mixon is listed as questionable due to an ankle damage. However the Texans are 7-3 when he averages greater than 4.0 yards per carry and 2-3 when he would not. — DJ Bien-Aime
Chiefs storyline to observe: The Chiefs made their dwelling on third downs in the course of the common season, extending drives 48.5% of the time, which was the second-best fee within the league. However the Texans had among the finest third-down defenses, giving up conversions solely 35.9% of the time. The Chiefs transformed seven of 13 tries (54%) towards the Texans in Week 16, which is a cause they received 27-19. They will want that very same success once more. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Houston’s C.J. Stroud (23) would be the youngest beginning quarterback to face a defending Tremendous Bowl champion within the postseason. The youngest to win in that state of affairs was the Panthers’ Kerry Collins (24) towards the Cowboys within the 1996 NFC divisional spherical. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis will document at the least 1.5 sacks. Karlaftis, who had 8.0 sacks this season, shall be up towards rookie deal with Blake Fisher, who has a below-average move block win fee (85.6%). And he’ll be making an attempt to chase down Stroud, who has a better than common 8% sack fee. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. To upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Texans should disrupt the pocket and velocity up Mahomes’ inner clock. Anderson, who had 11 sacks and 30 pressures this season, may have alternatives to win off the sting in a matchup towards proper deal with Jawaan Taylor. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 15-2 however are simply 7-10 towards the unfold (ATS). The one different playoff group with a dropping document towards the unfold is the Texans, who’re 8-10 ATS after overlaying within the wild-card spherical. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Officiating nugget: Referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw 59 flags for offensive holding, tied for many within the NFL. That development must be of specific be aware to the Chiefs, who have been flagged the second-most occasions (29) for offensive holding. The Texans had 22, tied for 14th most. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Chiefs 26, Texans 24
Moody’s choose: Chiefs 24, Texans 17
Walder’s choose: Chiefs 23, Texans 13
FPI prediction: Okay.C., 62.7% (by a mean of 4.6 factors)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -9 (55.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to observe: If Washington needs to beat top-seeded Detroit, it should proceed to have success on key downs offensively and hold the Lions’ offense on the sideline. The excellent news for the Commanders is rookie Jayden Daniels has the NFL’s finest QBR on third and fourth downs (93.5) with 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He has an ideal 100.0 QBR on fourth down, finishing eight of eight throws for 2 touchdowns and 7 first downs. — John Keim
Lions storyline to observe: Lions working again David Montgomery says he’s excited to return for the divisional spherical after sitting out Detroit’s closing three regular-season video games due to an MCL damage. Montgomery says he’s assured within the knee and “would not be on the market if I wasn’t prepared.” In his absence, Detroit’s different RB Jahmyr Gibbs has carried the load, with a career-best 4 touchdowns within the common season finale versus Minnesota. However Gibbs instructed ESPN that he has “missed [Montgomery] for a very long time” and he is “actual excited” for Montgomery’s return. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: No group was higher at racking up yards after the catch (YAC) than the Lions, who led the league in whole YAC (2,669) and on a per reception (6.7) foundation in the course of the common season. The Commanders have been wonderful at limiting YAC, giving up a league-low in whole YAC (1,551) and rating tenth per reception (5.1). — ESPN Analysis
1:44
McCourty: Commanders dealing with ‘totally different degree of strain’ vs. Lions
Jason McCourty and the “Get Up” crew focus on how Jayden Daniels can reside up-to-the-minute in a troublesome highway battle towards the Lions within the NFC divisional spherical.
Daring prediction: Daniels will rush for at the least 100 yards — which shall be solely the second time he hits that mark — in a dropping effort. If the Lions proceed their blitz-heavy method, as they’ve since dropping Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula), Daniels goes to place up numbers on the bottom with some lengthy scrambles. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Lions vast receiver Jameson Williams. Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or extra yards this season, and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can set him as much as flip the sphere. Search for the schemed shot performs excessive, plus the in-breaking ideas that create catch-and-run targets for Williams. — Bowen
Accidents: Commanders | Lions
Betting nugget: The Commanders-Lions over/beneath (55.5) is the very best in a playoff recreation since Tremendous Bowl LV between the Buccaneers and Chiefs (56). Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Officiating nugget: Referee Ron Torbert’s regular-season crew averaged 17.1 flags per recreation, third most within the NFL. That features 49 for offensive holding, which was the fourth most of any crew. The Lions tied for the second-fewest holding penalties (14). The Commanders had 21 (sixteenth most). — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Lions 38, Commanders 30
Moody’s choose: Lions 34, Commanders 24
Walder’s choose: Lions 42, Commanders 28
FPI prediction: DET, 73.0% (by a mean of 9.0 factors)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -6 (43.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to observe: The Rams’ protection gave up 314 dashing yards to the Eagles in Week 12, together with 255 to working again Saquon Barkley, one thing that has caught with the unit. Of the earlier eight gamers to document 200 or extra dashing yards towards a group within the common season and meet that group once more within the playoffs, none ran for greater than 200 yards within the second assembly, per ESPN Analysis. — Sarah Barshop
Eagles storyline to observe: The Eagles led all groups within the wild-card spherical with 4 takeaways of their stifling 22-10 win over the Packers. Philadelphia ranked thirtieth in turnover margin (minus-6) over the primary 5 weeks of the season. Since coming back from their Week 6 bye, the Eagles are tied for first with the Payments in turnover margin (plus-17). — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Rams had eight totally different gamers with at the least half a sack of their wild-card win over the Vikings, which was essentially the most by any group in a playoff recreation since particular person sacks grew to become official in 1982. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Eagles vast receiver A.J. Brown will document 100-plus receiving yards and a landing after his quiet wild-card weekend (pages learn: TBD). Brown’s season has nearly gone beneath the radar. He recorded 3.3 yards per route run within the common season, the fourth-highest mark by any receiver since 2007 (minimal 200 routes). — Walder
Matchup X issue: Eagles vast receiver DeVonta Smith. I see matchup benefits for Smith as a multilevel goal in Philadelphia’s move recreation. Smith may be schemed as an beneath choice for quarterback Jalen Hurts from slot alignments, whereas additionally testing the perimeter on vertical throws towards a Rams protection that gave up 57 receptions of 20 or extra yards within the common season, tied for fourth most within the league. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Rams are 4-1 ATS (3-2 straight up) in highway playoff video games beneath coach Sean McVay (since 2018). Los Angeles has averaged 25.4 factors per recreation in these contests. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Smith threw solely three flags for roughing the passer within the common season, tied for the second fewest. His crew was additionally comparatively mild on offensive holding, throwing the sixth fewest flags (33) within the league. The Eagles drew solely 14 offensive holding flags from their opponents, tied for third fewest. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Rams 24, Eagles 22
Moody’s choose: Eagles 20, Rams 18
Walder’s choose: Eagles 24, Rams 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 65.4% (by a mean of 6.0 factors)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BAL -1 (51.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to observe: With the chilly and wind in Buffalo, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen may need to depend on their legs — and so they’re one of the best at doing that at this level within the season. Allen has essentially the most dashing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason historical past (609) and Jackson ranks second (602). Nevertheless it might be tough to run towards the Ravens’ protection, which has given up 239 dashing yards to QBs this season (fifth fewest), and the Payments, who’ve given up 306 dashing yards to QBs (eleventh fewest). — Jamison Hensley
Payments storyline to observe: Can the Payments get out of the divisional spherical for the primary time because the 2020 season? Although a lot of the main focus is on MVP favorites at quarterback, limiting working again Derrick Henry shall be key. The Payments must put up a greater efficiency than they did in a Week 4 loss at Baltimore when Henry ran for 199 yards, essentially the most by any participant towards the Payments since Sean McDermott grew to become Buffalo’s coach in 2017. It is a a lot more healthy group this time round, with beginning linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickel nook Taron Johnson set to play after sitting out the earlier assembly. However as defensive deal with DaQuan Jones described Henry, “He is only a freak of nature.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Payments and Ravens had the identical level differential within the common season (plus-157), which was tied for first within the AFC. That is the seventh matchup in postseason historical past between groups that had the identical regular-season level differential, and the primary since Tremendous Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots after the 2017 season. — ESPN Analysis
1:29
Why Orlovsky is ‘fired up’ for Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen
Dan Orlovsky says each Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are on the prime of their video games heading into the showdown between the Ravens and Payments.
Daring prediction: Jackson will rush at the least 12 occasions for at the least 70 yards. Baltimore confirmed a willingness final week towards Pittsburgh to let Jackson run as a lot as wanted in tandem with Henry. I feel that shall be their recreation plan for the whole postseason. And the Payments have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback designed run or scramble, greater than the league common. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Payments security Taylor Rapp. His capability to run the alleys and deal with in house is vital to limiting the explosive play capability of Henry. Together with the playoffs, Henry’s 49 rushes of 10 or extra yards are tied for essentially the most within the league with Saquon Barkley. The Payments need to get Henry on the bottom when he breaks previous the second degree. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Payments have been favored in 42 straight dwelling video games, the longest lively streak within the NFL. The final time the Payments closed as dwelling underdogs was in Week 17 of 2020 towards the Dolphins (+3). Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Officiating nugget: Referee Carl Cheffers has led two of the previous 4 Tremendous Bowl crews and is amongst a small group of candidates to reprise that position this yr in New Orleans. Of be aware for this recreation: Cheffers threw solely two flags in the course of the common season for roughing the passer, the fewest within the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Ravens 28, Payments 25
Moody’s choose: Ravens 30, Payments 23
Walder’s choose: Ravens 31, Payments 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by a mean of 0.3 factors)