FOX Sports activities Insider
In fact, Travis Kelce was improper – aka joking – when he gave his most imaginative excuse but as to why he could not, or would not, speak about his who-knows-what-they-are-but-let’s-just-call-her-his-girlfriend, Taylor Swift.
Or was he?
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs tight finish was naturally cornered by reporters eager to get the news on his romantic standing when the squad touched down within the Swiftie hotbed of Germany final week. Regardless of their finest efforts, Kelce refused to spill any gossip about whether or not the recording icon would attend the sport towards the Miami Dolphins … (she did not).
“Once I talked about, or all people is aware of, that she’s on the recreation … the Over-Beneath on my catches sort of goes up and down,” Kelce mentioned. “The unfold goes up and down. So, you understand, I do not wish to mess with any of that stuff, so I’ll hold it to myself.”
Wow, that is an unique one. However may it really be true?
Who is aware of the place Kelce is getting his information or if he was simply deflecting the scuttlebutt in a very imaginative style? But, as absurd because the premise sounds that the mere presence of a songstress love curiosity may attraction to the oddsmakers’ mushy aspect, there’s no less than a statistical place to begin for a dialogue.
Within the 4 video games this season the place Swift has been in the home, Kelce has lit issues up for a mean of 108 yards per recreation. On the 4 events he has performed whereas she has been lacking from her customary place subsequent to Kelce’s mother, Donna, or alongside Patrick Mahomes’ spouse Brittany, his imply has been simply over 41 yards per, from 5.8 catches.
[The NFL (Taylor’s Version): Every NFL team as a Taylor Swift song]
Given how sportsbooks covet detailed figures and prioritize revenue, is there one thing cooking right here?
“Sorry,” mentioned Thomas Gable, director of race and sports activities on the Borgata in Atlantic Metropolis, with amusing. “However even when we knew forward of time whether or not she was going to be there, it isn’t going to have an effect on the opening numbers on the sport or on Travis Kelce’s props. These issues are based mostly on numerous information, not based mostly on somebody who will not be on the sector.”
In order that’s that, then. Type of. However wait …
“Having mentioned that, due to how standard and well-known she is, Taylor Swift being there could affect how folks guess,” Gable added. “If somebody is aware of she shall be on the recreation, and feels Kelce will play properly due to it, his props could begin getting guess. Bookmakers can react to a market being guess if there’s some huge cash coming in.”
However what about these stats? Coping with information that seems to mirror a sure pattern, however may very well be fully coincidental, is all a part of the variable nature of the sports activities betting trade.
As enjoyable as it might be to assume that flexing for his new beau propels Kelce to superhuman feats, Gable mentioned that in actuality what has occurred the previous couple of months – together with Kelce’s 14-yard displaying within the victory over Miami in Frankfurt – is properly throughout the bounds of normal variation.
Gable predicted it would hypothetically take much more, something like a full campaign’s worth of Kelce shining every time Swift is watching and underperforming every time she doesn’t, before the oddsmakers had viable cause for hesitation.
There is actually a little more depth to this than you’d imagine was possible and there are some gray areas involved. Because the story is an enjoyable one to anyone with a sense of fun, you never know quite what to make of what is being said about it.
For example, Mahomes either admitted – or possibly it was merely a playful quip – that knowing there was Swift and a legion of her fans at the Chiefs’ beatdown of the Chicago Bears in late September, he’d deliberately tried to funnel the ball into Kelce’s hands as much as possible.
“You can’t ignore this thing and I honestly can’t understand why anyone would feel the need to get uptight about it,” FOX Sports betting expert Chris “The Bear” Fallica told me. “From a betting perspective, it is actually really interesting.
“Without any doubt, as weird as it sounds, this story can bring in new bettors. The whole demographic where the NFL probably doesn’t have as much hold as others is the young female market.
“If someone gets interested because they like Taylor Swift, and then enjoy the game, and puts $20 on Kelce to score a touchdown, that’s a new audience right there.”
[‘Swifties Effect’: How Taylor Swift is affecting Travis Kelce, NFL player props]
A bye week looms for the 7-2 Chiefs, so the speculation and the cameras trained on the friends-and-family seats will have to be put on ice for a minute. All of this just gives more time for bettors, experts and oddsmakers to look a little bit deeper at things, if they are so minded.
The topic has already taken Fallica’s reserves of dedicated football research to a whole new level. If Swift is indeed the lucky charm, then it is fair to assume Chiefs fans would want her in attendance in Las Vegas were the team to make it back to the Super Bowl. The problem is, according to Fallica’s indefatigable sleuthing, she’s performing on tour in Japan the night before.
Is there a jet that could get her to Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium on time? Is this even something worth talking about? Is the whole thing a big old coincidence or further evidence of love’s mystical mysteries? Is their relationship even real?
All these questions, none of which we ever thought we’d be asking.
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the each day e-newsletter.
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