Jake Mintz
FOX Sports activities MLB Analyst
For 10 days in 2015, Aaron Nola and Cole Hamels shared a rotation.
Hamels, the one remaining pitcher from Philadelphia’s bygone juggernaut days, was quickly traded away for prospects. The Phillies then launched into a protracted and dreary rebuild, with solely Nola and the hope of a greater tomorrow to maintain them heat.
Within the interim, the lanky Louisianan developed into one of many recreation’s most dependable beginning pitchers, a lock to make 30 begins and toss 180 innings. Fortunately, Philly’s long-awaited return to relevance got here in 2022, and Nola, the crew’s longest-tenured participant, was nonetheless round. A hyperlink to the previous, a contributor to the current.
However what now of the longer term?
Along with his free company looming, the soft-spoken Nola spent quite a lot of 2023 dodging inquiries (understandably) about his contract standing, opting to deploy phrases like “process at hand” and “centered on the current” as a substitute. However now, November, and with it, the unknown, has arrived. For the primary time in almost a decade, Nola is not a Phillies worker.
In February of 2019, the Phillies inked the 2014 seventh-overall decide to a four-year, $45 million extension, a deal that in a short time seemed like a comical underpay. However as a result of Nola, now 31, debuted as a 22-year-old, he has reached free company for the primary time with lots left within the tank. So now Nola has his probability to safe a big sack of money. Sadly for Nola, there is a sturdy crop of beginning pitchers in the marketplace. Happily for Nola, he is the most effective.
[Shusterman: 2024 MLB free-agent rankings: Shohei Ohtani leads top 30]
The Participant
Two easy traits make Nola an extremely helpful pitcher: (1) He’s adequate to start out a postseason recreation, and (2) he’s outrageously sturdy.
Let’s start with the latter.
Since 2018, no person on earth has began extra MLB video games than Nola. Solely Gerrit Cole has thrown extra innings. Nola, Cole and José Berríos are the one pitchers to have tossed no less than 170 innings in each full season since 2018.
In an period of truncated outings and ballooned bullpens, pitchers like Nola who can work deep are supremely uncommon. Nola was considered one of solely 13 pitchers in 2023 who averaged no less than six frames per begin. That sort of innings-muncher allows a crew to avoid wasting its middle-relief arms for different video games. And all through a 162-game season, that is an enormous deal.
However Nola is rather more than a Jordan Lyles-style bulk sponge, as evidenced by his 3.65 ERA because the starting of 2018. That is not on the Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes ranges of dominance, nevertheless it’s well-above-average run prevention, particularly for a pitcher with a median fastball velocity round 92.5 miles per hour.
He was very, superb in his first three postseason begins this October earlier than an ill-timed stumble towards Arizona in NLCS Recreation 6. However as an entire, Nola has confirmed himself a legit, dictionary-definition No. 2 starter. And whereas that is not as attractive as an “ace,” it is a lot helpful in as we speak’s recreation.
The Contract 12 months
2023 was an odd season for Nola, whose higher-than-normal 4.46 ERA was the results of a brand new profession excessive in house runs allowed (32). Dig in a bit deeper, and it turns into clear that his struggles with the lengthy ball got here primarily towards left-handed hitters.
In 2022, Nola saved lefties at bay, limiting them to a paltry .200/.247/.310 with simply eight homers. However 2023 was a distinct story. Left-handed bats hit .240/.291/.444 towards Nola and ripped a whopping 16 homers. Twice the tater depend in roughly the identical variety of matchups towards lefties; that is an enormous motive why Nola’s total numbers backed up in ‘23.
However why?
A few of it’s dangerous luck. Anytime a pitcher’s home-run charge doubles like that, misfortune is definitely part of the story, particularly when there isn’t any lower in fastball velocity. There was quite a lot of harm towards Nola’s four-seam fastball within the center a part of the season, regardless that there weren’t any discernible modifications to the velocity or form of the pitch. Meaning Nola’s midyear struggles have been doubtless about sequencing and command of the four-seamer. Not an excessive amount of of a priority transferring ahead.
His total profile — common velocity, nice command, a deep arsenal of pitches — nonetheless factors to a pitcher who ought to age effectively into his 30s. Nonetheless, his numbers towards opposite-sided hitters are one thing to maintain tabs on.
The Market
The Phillies need Nola again. Basic Supervisor Dave Dombrowski referred to as it a “precedence” in the course of the membership’s end-of-season press convention. However want and motion are two completely different beasts.
Nola and his former employer mentioned an extension this spring coaching however have been reportedly canyons aside on worth. Now that 29 different golf equipment are theoretically within the combine, that greenback determine is barely going to rise.
The St. Louis Cardinals have emerged as a gorgeous touchdown spot for Nola. They’re determined for beginning pitching, plan to contend and look to have round $45 million to spend this winter. However any crew with eyes on October ought to have eyes on Nola. Because the Rangers proved final month, one can by no means have an excessive amount of beginning pitching.
Nola’s absolute monetary flooring figures to be the contract Kevin Gausman acquired two years in the past on the similar age (5 years, $110 million). However the longtime Phillie has a for much longer observe document than Gausman did and has all of the indicators of a hurler that may age effectively. All that ought to warrant a sixth 12 months, which might push Nola nearer to the $150 million vary.
Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball author for FOX Sports activities. He performed faculty baseball, poorly at first, then very effectively, very briefly. Jake lives in New York Metropolis the place he coaches Little League and rides his bike, typically on the similar time. Observe him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.
Get extra from Main League Baseball Observe your favorites to get details about video games, information and extra