The security web is gone.
This coming weekend we now have the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals. The losers go residence, the winners transfer inside two video games of glory.
The stakes and the requirements have simply risen to a different degree.
So, who will prevail?
Saturday, 14 October
Wales v Argentina (16:00 BST)
Wales’ progress has come at a value.
The loss of number eight Taulupe Faletau towards Georgia has been compounded by Gareth Anscombe’s harm, which can but rule him out. They’re each key gamers.
However Warren Gatland and his aspect have a cheerful behavior of stepping up when they should. They’ve a improbable pedigree of elevating their degree within the latter levels of this competitors.
Gatland might be reminding them of the chance in entrance of them. They’ve a really winnable recreation for a spot in a World Cup semi-final.
Fly-half Sam Costelow is inexperienced. He was making solely his third begin when he stepped in for Anscombe towards Georgia. However I assumed he performed intelligently and kicked his targets properly.
Argentina regarded higher towards Japan of their ultimate Pool D recreation, however, up till that time, I assumed that they had lacked cohesion and rhythm.
That recreation, coming a day later than Wales’ recreation towards Georgia, will not have helped them general. It was a very intense one, with a lot of operating, open rugby in scorching situations in Nantes.
I feel will probably be a very robust ask for them to show over Wales.
Eire v New Zealand (20:00 BST)
New Zealand are a really harmful beast. They’ve recovered from their opening-day defeat by France by scoring a complete of 36 tries of their wins over Namibia, Uruguay and Italy and displaying their free-flowing, clever rugby.
However in a top-end Take a look at match, towards an Eire aspect who haven’t put a foot improper within the event, you want extra. You want to have the ability to again up these moments of genius with relentless physicality and faultless consistency and I simply do not suppose the All Blacks have that gear in them.
Scotland are an excellent workforce. They got here into Saturday evening’s match motivated. That they had talked up the potential of beating Eire. However, they couldn’t lay a glove on them. Eire’s dominance began within the entrance row with Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong, however their complete ahead pack was large. Captain Peter O’Mahony was a totem for them, as he’s recreation after recreation. Garry Ringrose within the centres was imperious as properly.
And Eire have a sixteenth man, with the followers on the Stade de France. They beat South Africa there a fortnight in the past, they beat Scotland there on Saturday and they’ll play New Zealand there on the weekend. Paris has change into a house from residence with 1000’s of supporters within the stands and the streets. The workforce feed off the followers, the followers feed off the workforce and the connection feels actually private between the 2.
Eire have been too good for too lengthy and have an excessive amount of momentum for the All Blacks.
Sunday, 15 October
England v Fiji (16:00 BST)
It is a mighty shut name.
For giant components of the pool levels, Fiji have performed higher than England. They closed out victory over Australia properly and, on the opening weekend, had been probably a Semi Radradra dealing with error away from beating Wales.
The defeat by Portugal of their ultimate Pool C match was much less spectacular, though, by then, I feel they had been already waiting for England and the final eight.
Fiji go into that quarter-final buoyed by a landmark victory at Twickenham lower than two months in the past. That consequence and England’s laboured win over Samoa in their very own ultimate pool-stage recreation confirmed how Steve Borthwick’s aspect struggles towards the ball motion and energy typical of the Pacific Islanders’ recreation.
England must go to their strengths and make inroads by means of their set-piece earlier than they spin the ball any wider.
To try this you want George Ford operating the present from fly-half and I do not suppose Owen Farrell’s presence outdoors him helps. They actually did not appear to perform properly collectively towards Samoa, after some promising performances towards Argentina and Japan in Farrell’s absence.
England have larger expertise of the Rugby World Cup knockout levels with veterans of the Japan 2019 marketing campaign all through the workforce, however let’s not over-state the distinction.
Fiji have Levani Botia who has performed within the final three Champions Cup finals. They’ve Josua Tuisova who has performed in an Olympic ultimate. Half of their squad play their rugby with massive European golf equipment and are used to week-in week-out high-quality rugby. The opposite half now get uncovered to a few of the finest rugby within the southern hemisphere with the Fijian Drua’s participation in Tremendous Rugby
They’re tactically astute and disciplined in defence, whereas retaining that attacking edge, even when a few of the outdated inconsistencies stay.
I feel England’s ahead energy will nearly see them residence, however they must be a lot clearer and extra scientific in comparison with the Samoa recreation.
France v South Africa (20:00 BST)
Matthieu Jalibert
The hosts towards the holders – I feel that is the hardest one to name of all of the last-eight video games.
One factor in France’s favour is the help of the house nation. We have now typically puzzled if the event and expectation may show an excessive amount of for them, however head coach Fabien Galthie, workforce supervisor Raphael Ibanez and defence coach Shaun Edwards appear to have the ability to handle them by means of the stress.
It’s a brains belief of coaches who’ve been on the largest levels and largest video games and know methods to handle the build-up.
We noticed it on the opening evening after they beat New Zealand on the Stade de France and we noticed it after they closed out the Grand Slam final 12 months towards England on the identical stage.
We additionally noticed it in Marseille final 12 months after they beat South Africa 30-26 in an outstanding recreation. France misplaced Antoine Dupont that day to a crimson card and nonetheless gained.
Dupont remains to be getting back from a facial fracture sustained towards Namibia and might not be fairly prepared for this recreation. Any workforce goes to overlook the world’s finest participant, however Maxime Lucu, who has stood in at 9, has been a superb understudy.
South Africa have the instruments to beat France. Their defence comes up so quick they usually deal with so onerous that they will defend the gain-line and decelerate France’s provide of ball.
However France have threats throughout their workforce and the intelligence and composure to search out them and depose the defending champions.
Matt Dawson was talking with BBC Sport’s Mike Henson