Greg Auman
NFC South Reporter
The Falcons are solely a recreation out of first within the NFC South, however they’ve additionally misplaced 5 of their previous seven, and Arthur Smith is dealing with questions on why he would not use his greatest gamers in essential conditions across the objective line.
Atlanta had a first-and-goal on the 1 in Sunday’s loss to the Vikings and needed to accept a brief area objective in what ended up a three-point loss. For the season, the Falcons rank twenty ninth out of 32 groups of their success in goal-to-go alternatives, changing simply 53% into touchdowns. They have been twenty seventh final yr and thirty first the yr earlier than — with higher conversion charges each occasions — so it is a widespread theme in Smith’s three seasons in Atlanta.
Stranger nonetheless, the Falcons have had 18 offensive performs contained in the 5-yard line in 2023, and operating again Bijan Robinson — the No. 8 general draft decide this yr, on tempo for 1,348 yards of whole offense — has had just one contact in these 18. Receiver Drake London, final yr’s first-rounder, has two, and tight finish Kyle Pitts, the No. 4 decide in 2021, has one.
So Smith spent 5 minutes Wednesday speaking concerning the “nuance and context” of his goal-line playcalling, and the final theme was acknowledging it is an space by which the group wants to enhance if the Falcons need to win persistently.
“When you have not gotten the outcomes you need, try to be criticized,” Smith stated. “You have to go take a look at issues that did not work, why you probably did one thing, what your intent is. So why is the consequence? It’s a must to take a look at your errors and your failures and say, ‘This was our intent, what you are interested by, and the way do I objectively repair that?’ That is the place it’s essential be actually trustworthy. That is the one method you enhance.”
The Falcons have put three straight top-10 draft picks into their offense, taking Robinson, London and Pitts, and that creates optimism about that facet of the ball. Atlanta ranks eleventh in whole offense (yards) however ranks simply twenty fifth in factors per recreation, which might level to some stage of inefficiency, particularly close to the objective line. A few of that was quarterback Desmond Ridder totaling 12 turnovers, and Smith has made the swap to Taylor Heinicke, who will make his second begin of the season Sunday towards the Cardinals (1-8).
The nearer the Falcons get to the tip zone, the much less seemingly their greatest stars are to get the ball. Smith cited the group’s red-zone effectivity Wednesday: The Falcons have 14 touchdowns in 28 journeys contained in the opposing 20, and that fifty% success price has them tied for nineteenth.
“Not the place you need to be,” Smith conceded. “You clearly need to rating each time, however traditionally, if you happen to’re within the mid to excessive 60s, you are normally up there main the league. Some years we have been actually good at Tennessee. We have been rattling close to 75 p.c.”
Smith is definitely promoting himself quick. In his two years as Titans offensive coordinator, Tennessee led the league at 75.6% in 2019 and have been second at 75.0%. A few of that was elite offensive expertise — operating again Derrick Henry had 26 red-zone touchdowns in these two seasons, getting the ball on 1 / 4 of the red-zone snaps, and receiver A.J. Brown had 11 landing catches in 20 red-zone targets. The overlap between these offenses and his present Falcons group is tight finish Jonnu Smith, who was focused greater than Brown within the purple zone with Tennessee and had 10 touchdowns himself.
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It is puzzling that the offensive thoughts behind the league’s greatest red-zone productiveness would now be fighting the identical factor in Atlanta, however the issue will get even worse in goal-to-go conditions. His Tennessee groups, partly due to Henry, have been wonderful in such spots: 88% touchdowns in 2019, 94% in 2020, each No. 1 within the league. In 2021 and 2022, after Smith left for the Falcons, the Titans stayed at No. 1 each seasons.
That goal-line dominance hasn’t adopted Smith to Atlanta. The Falcons transformed 58% his first yr, 64% final yr, and now it is simply 53%. For perspective, three NFL groups (together with the one-win Cardinals group they’re going to face Sunday) are nonetheless at 100% in goal-to-go, midway by way of the season.
Robinson has barely been used close to the objective line all season — one goal (caught for a landing) contained in the 10-yard line and two carries, in comparison with 10 for backup Tyler Allgeier, who has totaled 16 yards on these carries, scoring thrice. There may be some logic in pondering that the most effective gamers close to the objective line are additionally going to be essentially the most well-covered by opposing defenses, so there’s worth in turning to the gamers left open because of this.
However Robinson wasn’t even on the sphere Sunday when the Falcons had three performs on the Titans’ 1-yard line. They lined up heavy with a number of tight ends and fullbacks, attempting a handoff to Jonnu Smith for no acquire and a run by Allgeier for a loss. Robinson later misplaced a fumble, contributing to the Vikings’ comeback, and when the Falcons took the lead with two minutes to go, it got here on a rating by Allgeier, the final of eight carries he had on the drive after changing Robinson close to midfield.
“We have now numerous guys that we predict are good gamers on this group,” the coach stated Wednesday. “So it is not simply Bijan, but it surely’s all these guys.”
He defined that the No. 1 learn on a play is perhaps Pitts or London, but when they’re coated, they’re going to look elsewhere, and zone-read choice performs would possibly generally favor the quarterback holding onto the ball reasonably than pitching to Robinson. He stated Robinson “has been on the tip of the spear on most of them, and the ball hasn’t gone to him each time.”
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In his two years as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator, Smith’s Titans failed to attain touchdowns in goal-to-go conditions as soon as for each 11 possibilities. Now they’re mainly lacking each different time, and he understands that should enhance, even when he stands by his “balanced” use of personnel in such conditions.
“It is my job to ensure we’re higher than 50 p.c,” he stated. “In the end, we have to attain extra factors than the opponent, and we need to attempt to attain each time we’re down there. That is the way it shakes down.”
Smith desires to be “extra deadly” within the purple zone, however stated he believes within the personnel on the sphere and the workers teaching them up and making the selections on which performs to which gamers are greatest.
“We’re not enthusiastic about the place we’re at,” he stated. “However we’re not lifeless and we’re not out of it, and we get the possibility to go do one thing about it. That is what you need.”
Greg Auman is FOX Sports activities’ NFC South reporter, protecting the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He’s in his tenth season protecting the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having frolicked on the Tampa Bay Instances and The Athletic. You’ll be able to comply with him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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