Because the Commanders put together to face the Eagles in Sunday’s NFC Championship Recreation, this is a cool nugget of optimism for every staff: The final 4 instances there was a divisional rematch in a convention title sport, the winner has gone on to win the Tremendous Bowl.
The Rams beat the 49ers on the way in which to a title in 2021, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in 2013, the Packers beat the Bears in 2010, and the Steelers beat the Ravens in 2008. It would not matter how their regular-season conferences went — the Rams had been swept, the Steelers had swept, and the Seahawks and Packers had break up their first two video games, simply because the Eagles and Commanders did this season.
These two video games between Philadelphia and Washington have been thrillers. In Week 11, the Eagles scored 20 straight factors within the fourth quarter, together with two Saquon Barkley touchdowns, in a 26-18 win. In Week 18, the Commanders trailed 27-14 within the fourth quarter earlier than rookie QB Jayden Daniels threw three landing passes, the final with six seconds left, to rally Washington to a 36-33 win.
With that, this is our deep dive into the final two NFC groups standing, their largest strengths, query marks and X-factors:
No. 2 seed: Philadelphia EaglesÂ
Greatest energy: You need to begin with Barkley and the NFL’s No. 2 dashing assault, which has averaged 227 yards per sport within the playoffs to date. The eradicated Ravens really averaged extra, however the final staff to common extra within the playoffs earlier than this season was the 1974 Steelers (231). Add in Jalen Hurts and the Eagles had 184 dashing yards simply on touchdowns of their divisional win over the Rams. Philly’s ground-and-pound energy goes up towards a vulnerability for Washington, however then once more, Detroit rushed for 201 yards on 23 carries final weekend and the Commanders nonetheless beat the Lions by 14 factors.
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Greatest query mark: The Eagles’ passing sport has been practically nonexistent. They completed with 65 web passing yards on Sunday, the bottom in a playoff win in 14 years. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith mixed for 35 yards on 11 targets, with a protracted of 9 yards. If Washington’s protection can restrict the run, can Philadelphia take benefit by the air? Hurts barely performed earlier than struggling a concussion within the Eagles’ Week 16 loss to the Commanders. In Philadelphia’s Week 11 win over Washington, he threw for 221 yards. So current proof apart, it is doable that the Philly offense may have extra steadiness than previously two video games.
X-factor: Defensive lineman Jalen Carter is simply 23, however his sack of Matthew Stafford within the last minute to seal the win over the Rams was a reminder of what a game-wrecker he may be. The Commanders can be with out guard Sam Cosmi, who sustained a knee harm towards the Lions, and that units up a weak spot on the inside of Washington’s offensive line, as backup Trent Scott began just one sport this season. The Eagles’ document for sacks by a participant in a playoff sport is 2, and it is occurred seven instances, together with thrice previously two weeks.
No. 6 seed: Washington CommandersÂ
Greatest energy: It is not even shut: Rookie QB Jayden Daniels continues to enhance and amaze in main Washington to what’s now a seven-game successful streak. Daniels’ subsequent landing cross will give him the NFL rookie document with 5 in a postseason. Sure, it is a low quantity, but it surely reminds you ways uncommon it’s to have a rookie main a staff to victory in January. The Eagles held Daniels in test in addition to anybody within the first assembly — 191 passing yards, 18 dashing yards. Within the second sport, nonetheless, he had 5 landing passes and 81 dashing yards, a efficiency that was a transparent foreshadowing of the promising postseason forward.
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Greatest query mark: Can the Washington protection maintain the Eagles below 30 factors? Detroit scored 31 towards the Commanders regardless of 5 turnovers, piling up 521 yards of whole offense. Washington is giving up 7.2 yards per play within the playoffs, the worst mark by any of the 14 playoff groups. Barkley alone averaged 148 dashing yards and two touchdowns within the two video games towards Washington, so the Commanders’ problem is to get to Hurts and include his scrambling means whereas additionally retaining Barkley from the game-changing lengthy landing runs he is had all season.
X-factor: Takeaways. Washington and Philadelphia are tied for the perfect turnover margin staff within the playoffs — each are plus-6, forcing six turnovers and committing none. Whichever staff can maintain that’s in all probability headed to the Tremendous Bowl. However when you look again on the common season, the Eagles have been plus-11, whereas the Commanders have been plus-1, which factors to Philadelphia having the sting total. Daniels’ means to keep away from errors whereas being a catalyst for all the offense is sorely underappreciated in all of the reward being appropriately thrown his manner.
Prediction: You possibly can’t assist however see a high-scoring sport, and Daniels has been so harmful in late-game conditions. The divisional win over the Lions ended a run of 5 straight video games that Washington gained on the ultimate play. With two potent offenses going head-to-head, this might come right down to red-zone execution — the Commanders ranked sixth within the common season there, whereas the Eagles ranked thirteenth. However on red-zone protection, Philadelphia ranked fifth and Washington twenty second. We’ll take the Eagles to carry on for a house win to go to their second Tremendous Bowl in three seasons. Eagles 38, Commanders 28
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand spent a decade protecting the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Instances and The Athletic. You possibly can comply with him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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