NFL groups compete all season to arrange the seeding that decides who will get to host playoff video games and who has to go on the street to advance. In essence, groups battle for 18 weeks to find out who earns the simplest path to the Tremendous Bowl.
And as one other wild-card weekend of six video games approaches, the fifth yr of the expanded 14-team playoffs, it is an opportunity to take a look at the arduous numbers and statistical developments.Â
Simply how useful is home-field benefit within the postseason?
The only reply over the previous three years is that, not less than on the opening weekend of the playoffs, larger seeds taking part in on their residence area have a substantial benefit, going 14-4 in wild-card video games. Of the 4 opening-weekend upsets because the 2021 season, just one — the sixth-seeded 49ers in 2021 — has superior past the divisional spherical.Â
That is not at all times the case, in fact: Within the earlier three years, from 2018-20, almost the other was true, with residence groups going 4-10 in these wild-card rounds.
The NFL’s present playoff mannequin rewards solely the highest workforce in every convention with a first-round bye — the Chiefs and Lions earned these honors this season — and in three of the 4 years in that mannequin, each high seeds have superior to play the convention championship on their residence area. The exception was a chaotic 2021, when the top-seeded Titans and Packers each misplaced by a area aim within the divisional spherical, sending a 2 seed, two 4 seeds and a 6 seed to the convention championship video games.
Over the previous 4 years, half of the No. 1 seeds have superior to the Tremendous Bowl, however just one — the 2022 Chiefs — has really gained, so there’s an expectation of the sudden. The final 4 Tremendous Bowl champions included three groups not anticipated to make it previous the divisional spherical based mostly on seeding. Final yr’s Chiefs have been a 3 seed, the 2021 Rams have been a 4 seed, and the 2020 Bucs gained as a 5 seed, profitable three street video games to get to the Tremendous Bowl.
How large a bonus is residence area generally? Lower than you would possibly anticipate. This previous season, over 272 video games, residence groups went 145-127, which works out to a .533 profitable share, about the identical as a 9-8 workforce over the course of a full season. That benefit was down barely from 2023, when NFL residence groups went 151-121, good for a .555 win share, very similar to a 5-4 report.
In 2023, all eight NFL divisions had not less than a .500 report at residence, however this season, the AFC South went 14-18 at residence, the NFC South went 15-21, and three different divisions have been .500 at residence. So within the 2024 NFL season, solely three of eight divisions collectively had profitable data at residence.
As a result of the NFL offers division champs an computerized residence sport, the house workforce is not essentially the perfect workforce in some first-round conferences. The Vikings (14-3) have probably the most wins of any wild card in NFL historical past, so to no shock, they seem to be a 2.5-point street favourite on the Rams (10-7), and alongside the identical strains, the Chargers (11-6) are three-point street favorites on the Texans (10-7). FOX Sports activities NFL Analyst Bucky Brooks’ playoff workforce rankings have Minnesota at 4, effectively forward of the internet hosting Rams at 9, and the Chargers are at 8, 4 spots above the Texans at 12.
[Read more: NFL playoff team rankings: Chiefs lead a stacked field headed into postseason]
Much more so within the playoffs, groups are judged by their quarterbacks. As a trivia query, what number of of this yr’s 14 beginning quarterbacks on playoff groups have profitable data within the playoffs? Six of the 14 have zero or one win, and the right reply is simply two: Kansas Metropolis’s Patrick Mahomes is method forward at 15-3, Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson is 9-7 (with just one win since 2016), and the remainder are all .500 or worse.
The data of even the perfect playoff quarterbacks ever present it is a lot more durable on the street. Tom Brady was 35-13 in his playoff profession, however simply 7-4 in true street video games, in comparison with 21-6 at residence and 7-3 in Tremendous Bowls.
Tom Brady led the wild-card Bucs to the Tremendous Bowl LV title as a 5-seed, profitable three video games on the street. (Picture by Simon Bruty/Sports activities Illustrated by way of Getty Photographs)
The shadow solid by Mahomes is gigantic: He has extra playoff wins than all seven NFC beginning quarterbacks on this yr’s postseason mixed (they’re 13-14). Buffalo’s Josh Allen is 5-5 within the playoffs and would not go on the street this postseason till the AFC Championship Sport, and Buffalo is forward of third-seeded Baltimore, the place Lamar Jackson may win his third MVP, however is simply 2-4 within the playoffs.
The highest 4 seeds on this yr’s playoffs — the Chiefs, Lions, Payments and Eagles — have been a mixed 31-3 at residence this season, making it that a lot more durable for decrease seeds to tug off prolonged playoff runs. However the first spherical may nonetheless go the other way up, realizing the Bucs and Rams have been solely 5-4 at residence and the Texans have been 5-3. Houston hosts a Chargers workforce that was higher on the street (6-3) than at residence this season, and the Bucs host a Washington workforce that was 5-3 on the street.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand spent a decade protecting the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Instances and The Athletic. You possibly can comply with him on Twitter at @gregauman.
[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]
Get extra from Nationwide Soccer League Observe your favorites to get details about video games, information and extra