The NFL common season is in its ultimate three-week stretch, and the groups that may make this yr’s playoffs are almost set. Seven groups have clinched a spot, and 6 others have an 87% or higher probability of creating the playoffs by the New York Occasions’ simulator, which leaves the NFC West because the final “you are in otherwise you’re out” spot really up for grabs.
What remains to be very a lot up within the air are the seeds for these 14 groups. One NFC workforce sitting fairly at 12-2 proper now will find yourself with a first-round bye, and one other will begin the playoffs on the highway as a wild card. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle damage out of the blue means the Chiefs aren’t a lock for the AFC’s high seed and home-field benefit, cracking open a window for Buffalo, which handed Kansas Metropolis its solely loss to date this season.
We’re right here to indicate you which of them groups have a simple three weeks forward, and which groups have a considerably harder path to the playoffs. The query is not whether or not they’ll make the postseason, however quite how they may also help themselves with a better highway to the Tremendous Bowl in New Orleans. Listed here are the battles to observe down the stretch and the remaining opponents for every workforce:
NFC TOP SEED
Lions (12-2): at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings (mixed report 22-20)
Eagles (12-2): at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants (mixed report 17-25)
Vikings (12-2): at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions (mixed report 30-12)
It is a nice three-way battle that may most likely come right down to the Lions-Vikings regular-season finale in Week 18. If we presume, conservatively, that every workforce wins no less than yet one more sport, you may have three 13-win groups in the identical convention — the NFL had just one whole final yr. Three 14-win groups in a single convention can be unprecedented.
The Vikings have simply the hardest remaining schedule, dealing with three potential playoff groups, two of them on the highway. Then once more, the Lions’ two losses this season have come at Ford Discipline, so there’s irony if one other residence loss sends Detroit on the highway within the playoffs, doubtlessly after going unbeaten away from residence. The Lions have been decimated by accidents on protection, so their subsequent two on the highway aren’t as straightforward, although if there is a workforce extra restricted by accidents within the NFL, it is the 49ers.
One other very actual state of affairs: The Vikings lose one among their subsequent two however then knock off the Lions, and the Eagles, with the best remaining schedule of the three, win the following two and wish solely to beat the lowly Giants in Week 18 to safe the No. 1 seed. New York might need the motivation of figuring out a loss provides it the No. 1 general choose within the 2025 draft.
AFC TOP SEED
Chiefs (13-1): vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos (mixed report 28-14)
Payments (11-3): vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots (mixed report 10-32)
Steelers (10-4): at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals (mixed report 28-14)
Earlier than Mahomes injured his ankle, the Chiefs appeared a lock for the AFC’s high seed, however now they face three seemingly playoff groups, doubtlessly with backup Carson Wentz main the cost. In the event that they lose two, Buffalo may have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas Metropolis, which may imply an AFC Championship Sport showdown would happen in Buffalo, quite than at Arrowhead.
Ought to Chiefs relaxation Patrick Mahomes vs. Texans in Week 16?
Buffalo has the best remaining schedule by far — two video games in opposition to the Patriots, sandwiched round a house sport in opposition to the Jets. That is a simple path to 14 wins, which nonetheless would not make Buffalo the AFC’s high seed if the Chiefs win two of their ultimate three video games. Pittsburgh is simply a sport again of Buffalo, however its schedule is perhaps more durable than the Chiefs’. If something, the Steelers have to protect in opposition to being caught by the Ravens, who’re just one sport again and might make that up just by beating Pittsburgh in Baltimore this weekend. The Ravens go to Houston in Week 17, however get to complete the yr at residence in opposition to the Browns, doubtlessly clinching a division title in the event that they win and the Steelers lose to the Bengals.
LAST TWO AFC WILD CARDS
Broncos (9-5): at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs (mixed report 27-15)
Chargers (8-6): vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders (mixed report 14-28)
The Chargers are two video games up on the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals for the ultimate AFC wild card with three weeks left. The New York Occasions simulator provides them an 87% probability to make the playoffs. So the extra fascinating factor to observe is whether or not they can catch the Broncos for the No. 6 seed, which might imply avoiding a visit to face the lesser of the Payments and Chiefs within the wild-card spherical.
The Chargers get the Broncos at residence on Thursday and beat Denver of their first assembly, so a win by itself would put L.A. forward. Jim Harbaugh’s squad additionally has a a lot simpler ultimate two weeks, dealing with two groups on the right track to choose within the high three picks of the draft in April.
If the Broncos lose on Thursday, there’s an actual probability they are going to face the Chiefs within the regular-season finale figuring out that in the event that they win, they will should face the Chiefs once more per week in a while the highway within the playoffs. We’re anticipating Mahomes again by the beginning of the playoffs, however may or not it’s a good end result for Denver to attract Kansas Metropolis and a limping Mahomes, quite than a wholesome Josh Allen and the Payments? Had the Chiefs not blocked a subject purpose as time expired, the Broncos would have received at Arrowhead this yr.
NFC THIRD SEED
Bucs (8-6): at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints (mixed report 14-28)
Rams (8-6): at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks (mixed report 19-23)
There could possibly be an identical “who do you need to keep away from within the playoffs” motivation on the NFC facet, the place the Bucs are just one sport up on the Falcons, but in addition management their future to safe the NFC No. 3 seed. That will enable them to keep away from internet hosting the Lions or Vikings within the wild-card spherical. (Internet hosting the Packers or Commanders is not any deal with both, however appears barely simpler).
Each Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have pretty mild remaining schedules and will run the desk to go 11-6. If each achieve this, the Bucs would have the tiebreaker over the Rams primarily based on a greater convention report. Even so, the Rams may have the division title on the road in Week 18 at residence in opposition to Seattle, although the Seahawks may must beat the Vikings this week to maintain that in play. There’s an opportunity that Rams-Seahawks finale may have each groups 10-6 — the winner hosts a playoff sport, the loser may miss the playoffs fully if Washington (9-5) wins simply one among its final three video games.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand spent a decade masking the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Occasions and The Athletic. You possibly can comply with him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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