Welcome to essentially the most unpredictable time of the 12 months. Whereas parity in Main League Baseball appears better than ever, it has been a cloth of the postseason for the reason that flip of the century. No crew has gained consecutive World Sequence titles for the reason that 2000 Yankees, a streak that may proceed because the defending champion Texas Rangers don’t have anything to defend this October.
Whereas there are new and acquainted favorites heading into these playoffs, current historical past has proven that the previous six months needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It is all about who can catch hearth over the subsequent 4 weeks. And all 12 — nicely, 13 for now — remaining golf equipment are contenders.
With that, FOX Sports activities MLB consultants Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar make the case for why every postseason participant will and will not win the World Sequence in 2024.
(Groups are listed by seeding. The Nationwide League’s closing two wild-card seeds will probably be decided Monday by the Braves-Mets doubleheader. World Sequence odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
AMERICAN LEAGUE
1. New York Yankees
World Sequence odds: +450
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: The Yankees personal the most effective offense within the American League, and though there is a steep drop-off in manufacturing after their top-heavy coronary heart of the order, they’ve nonetheless managed to overpower opposing pitching staffs all through the course of a nine-inning sport. Going through Aaron Decide and Juan Soto is a pitcher’s nightmare, and if Giancarlo Stanton can replicate his .963 postseason OPS and Austin Wells recaptures a few of his late-summer magic, there will probably be little alternative however to undergo New York’s dynamic duo, relatively than simply give them free passes. The Massive Three of Decide, Soto, and Gerrit Cole working at their finest this October offers the Yankees a transparent benefit that would take all of them the best way to the Fall Traditional.
Why they will not: Protection and foolish, unforced errors. Gleyber Torres’ suboptimal baserunning is a obtrusive problem, notably as a result of no different participant has been thrown out on the plate greater than the Yankees’ second baseman this 12 months, however he isn’t the one one with errors on the basepaths. The Yankees are ranked useless final in baserunning metrics and Soto, too, has made questionable selections whereas trying to advance. Too typically this 12 months, we have seen Alex Verdugo failing to hustle out of the field, and different gamers at occasions missing heads-up decision-making. Rookie Jasson Dominguez has been having fairly the journey in left area, struggling to make catchable performs and customarily showing uncomfortable. Different playoff contenders are a lot cleaner and sharper on protection, to the purpose the place this flaw may very well be deadly. — Deesha Thosar
2. Cleveland Guardians
World Sequence odds: +1100
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: They’ve the most effective bullpen and nearer within the majors. Emmanuel Clase has a 0.61 ERA on the 12 months and has transformed every of his previous 34 save alternatives. Every of the Guardians’ 4 most-used relievers — Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith — have an ERA beneath 2.00 for the 12 months. The Cleveland bullpen’s 2.57 ERA is the bottom mark of any reduction group for the reason that 2013 Braves. If the Guardians construct an early lead, the sport’s over. Celebrity José Ramírez has some assist in the ability division this 12 months from Josh Naylor, and deadline addition Lane Thomas and rookie Kyle Manzardo are heating up on the proper time.
Why they will not: Cleveland’s elite arms on the again finish can stifle any opponent, however constructing a result in get to these behemoths will probably be a problem. The Guardians rank seventeenth in OPS on the season and twenty sixth for the reason that break. Their offense has the bottom hard-hit charge in baseball whereas their beginning pitchers rank twenty fourth in ERA. No crew has gained a World Sequence with a rotation that ranked outdoors the highest 10 in ERA for the reason that 2015 Royals. The one transfer the crew made to deal with the problem was buying and selling for Alex Cobb, who was injured your entire first half. He has been restricted to 3 begins all season. Matthew Boyd supplied a second-half spark, however except for Tanner Bibee, the choices do not precisely encourage confidence. — Rowan Kavner
3. Houston Astros
World Sequence odds: +850
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: They can’t be counted out till the ultimate out of an elimination sport. Many individuals do not need to hear this, however what the Astros have completed to win their seventh division title previously eight years is nothing wanting outstanding. They had been 10 video games behind the first-place Mariners in late June, coping with accidents to a number of key gamers, solely to clinch the AL West once more with their third completely different supervisor in six years. The Astros have gained earlier than by cruising, however these previous couple of years they’ve gone into October battle-tested to protect a now eight-year streak of playoff appearances. That sort of pedigree can frighten opponents earlier than even stepping onto the sphere. As soon as once more, Houston has the roster expertise and the road cred to get it completed.
Why they will not: Yordan Alvarez’s knee damage and potential first-year supervisor stumbles. The Astros slugger has been such an integral a part of their current runs, together with slugging six homers and tallying 15 RBI in 11 playoff video games final 12 months. With their playoff weapon coping with a sprained proper knee, it is unclear if Alvarez will even play within the postseason, not to mention be wholesome sufficient to do something however DH. That would restrict plate appearances for catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini. Alvarez’s damage could not have come at a worse time for the Astros. Then there’s the unknown factor of Joe Espada’s first time managing within the playoffs, and all of the nerves and indecision that would accompany it. Espada has completed nicely so far, however he’ll have to remain intact because the lights get brighter. — Deesha Thosar
4. Baltimore Orioles
World Sequence odds: +1200
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: A gifted offense and an authorized ace in Corbin Burnes. Baltimore’s No. 1 starter turns into a free agent this winter, and the Orioles will probably be relying on him to take them to the World Sequence whereas they’ve him, notably as a result of many of the arms behind Burnes are lower than threatening. Since 2020, solely Wheeler (24.5) has the next fWAR than Burnes (21.4). Aggressive to his core, will probably be fascinating to look at Burnes check his personal limits in Baltimore’s playoff run, mere days and weeks earlier than he explores the market beneath agent Scott Boras’ steerage. There’s already little question he’ll enter free company as baseball’s prime obtainable pitcher, and it’ll solely enhance his attraction if he is towing a World Sequence ring.
Why they will not: Their suboptimal second half. The Orioles had been the most effective crew in baseball to start the 12 months, solely to appear like a totally completely different ballclub for the reason that All-Star break. Their bullpen has actually harm them these previous few months, rating twenty seventh within the majors in ERA (4.60) and 18th in WHIP (1.28) since July 19. They’d a number of probabilities to catch the Yankees, who additionally spiraled into the All-Star break, for the division lead. However the O’s squandered any and each alternative to capitalize down the stretch. There have been key gamers in extended slumps, and it is easy to neglect that that is nonetheless a younger roster due to their shocking division-clinching race to the playoffs final 12 months. Momentum continues to be potential, however the O’s might need too many query marks to reply at this stage. — Deesha Thosar
5. Kansas Metropolis Royals
World Sequence odds: +2500
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: They’ve a famous person in Bobby Witt Jr. placing collectively one of many best all-around seasons from a shortstop ever and one of many prime catchers and rotations within the playoff area. Their beginning pitchers will enter the postseason with the bottom ERA of any crew enjoying in October. In Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha, the Royals boast three beginning pitchers who rank within the prime 20 in ERA. The membership’s relievers have not been fairly so dependable — however that hasn’t been a problem these days. The Kansas Metropolis bullpen ranks within the prime 10 in ERA this month, settling in behind boosts from Daniel Lynch, who hasn’t allowed a run since getting recalled in late August, and deadline addition Lucas Erceg.
Why they will not: At a time you’d hope to be constructing some momentum going into October, the Royals have a shedding document this month. It isn’t a coincidence that coincides with the lack of their first baseman. The dearth of depth within the lineup has been uncovered after Vinnie Pasquantino’s thumb damage late final month. Since he went down, the Kansas Metropolis offense ranks final within the majors in each slash line class. Pasquantino may very well be again for the postseason, however the size of the lineup will stay a problem. Of the 13 Royals batters with not less than 20 at-bats this month, seven are hitting beneath .200. And whereas the Royals’ bullpen has been sturdy these days, it is nonetheless a gaggle that ranks within the backside half of the game in ERA and strikeout charge within the season’s second half. — Rowan Kavner
6. Detroit Tigers
World Sequence odds: +2700
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: Youthful exuberance, paired with legit expertise, generally is a secret weapon within the postseason. Whether or not it is 24-year-old outfielder Riley Greene’s .827 OPS, or Kerry Carpenter’s sturdy return from damage, or the impactful prospects they referred to as as much as complement rising skills, all of the Tigers do these days is win. Plus, Detroit’s bullpen sneakily owns the fourth-best ERA within the huge leagues. The reduction unit of Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest has been all types of dominant, and that is an enormous X-factor so long as the Tigers offense may give them some run assist. A.J. Hinch is managing this 12 months’s Cinderella Story crew and Detroit’s underdog factor may very well be the spoiler for some playoff favorites — though it is a lengthy shot.
Why they will not: In the end, it is a lineup missing stars with no actual expertise having what it takes to get via the gauntlet that’s postseason baseball. We noticed how shortly the younger and inexperienced Orioles had been dismantled by the Texas Rangers as early because the wild-card spherical final 12 months, and it could shock precisely nobody if the Tigers fell to the identical destiny. Their lack of pitching depth is one other concern in October. Think about how a lot better their probabilities would’ve been in the event that they hadn’t traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, and he was lined as much as pitch behind ace Tarik Skubal? It is astonishing that Detroit is even on this checklist, and for that, the membership deserves a spending spree from possession this winter for high quality veterans who will assist 2024’s promising roster. — Deesha Thosar
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
World Sequence odds: +350
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: Their pitching employees is depleted, they’ve gained fewer than 100 video games in a full season for the primary time since 2018 and but … right here the Dodgers are, the highest seed within the Nationwide League with the most effective document in baseball. Regardless of their deficiencies, they’ve Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (assuming he is ready to return from his ankle damage in time for the playoffs). That trio plus a extremely succesful supporting solid behind them led by Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Max Muncy is likely to be sufficient to outslug the pitching issues. The deadline acquisitions of Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman may very well be simply sufficient to offer them every thing they want.
Why they will not: So, about these pitching issues … what number of playoff video games would a crew win with a rotation starring some mixture of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Dustin Could, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan? Nicely, all of them will probably be unavailable to the Dodgers when the calendar flips to October. Contemplating the up-and-down season for Walker Buehler and the way little there may be obtainable to the Dodgers behind him, there’s lots using on the success of Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who missed almost three months with a shoulder damage. An excessive amount of, maybe. — Rowan Kavner
2. Philadelphia Phillies
World Sequence odds: +360
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: They are a well-balanced crew. The Phillies are easy in a number of sides of the sport, together with a dominant beginning rotation led by Zack Wheeler, probably the most cool-under-pressure arms within the majors, and a potent offense that is ranked fifth in MLB in slugging. The Phillies are as hungry as they’ve ever been to convey a parade again to Philly after getting stung by the Astros within the World Sequence in 2022 and collapsing versus the Diamondbacks within the NLCS final 12 months. After a heartbreaking offseason and a decided common season, they need to show they will end the job. They’re already in higher form than in years previous by successful their first division title since 2011. The Phillies enter October as one of many prime three groups to beat, alongside the Yankees and Dodgers.
Why they will not: The bullpen, and the offense when Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber aren’t crushing house runs. Dave Dombrowski did an excellent job on the commerce deadline by bolstering the reduction corps, the Craig Kimbrel-induced Achilles heel that kind of led to their collapse in final 12 months’s NLCS. This time round, the addition of Carlos Esteves within the combine ought to assist an amazing deal, however their bullpen continues to be ranked sixteenth in MLB in ERA, with a number of different playoff contenders sporting higher, extra full models. The Phillies would possibly want their starters to go as deep as potential to attenuate bullpen utilization, and even then there are not any ensures with this group. Plus, the offense might be considerably flaky when the same old suspects aren’t crushing bombs, and that is a priority for an in any other case dominant Phillies crew. — Deesha Thosar
3. Milwaukee Brewers
World Sequence odds: +1900
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes … and nonetheless managed to assemble among the finest pitching staffs within the sport. Freddy Peralta leads an unheralded rotation that features a rookie in Tobias Myers who deserves extra consideration than he has acquired, however what guides this crew is a bullpen that leads the NL with a 3.17 ERA. The group was already electrical with Devin Williams out and, to nobody’s shock, seems to be even higher since his return. The shutdown nearer hasn’t allowed a run in September. Offensively, the lack of Christian Yelich hurts, however the energy of William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins, the velocity of Brice Turang and the mix of each supplied by Willy Adames and breakout rookie Jackson Chourio offers supervisor Pat Murphy loads to work with.
Why they will not: That offense has began to point out cracks, rating twenty seventh in batting common and twenty sixth in on-base share in September. Lefties specifically could cause issues for the lineup. However the largest crimson flag is the rotation, which simply won’t have sufficient elite arms to hold the crew via October. Peralta orchestrated his second straight 200-strikeout season, however Myers is a rookie, Colin Rea has a 7.43 ERA over his final seven appearances and veteran addition Frankie Montas has an ERA shut to five.00 on the 12 months. — Rowan Kavner
4. San Diego Padres
World Sequence odds: +1100
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: The brand new-look Padres offense with Luis Arráez on the prime boasts the best batting common and lowest whiff and strikeout charges within the sport. Jurickson Profar is having a profession 12 months at age 31, Jackson Merrill has emerged as a Rookie of the 12 months contender at 21, and their stars are scorching on the proper time. Nevertheless it goes past the offense. The Padres have been the most effective crew in baseball within the second half largely attributable to a pitching employees that has the Nationwide League’s lowest ERA for the reason that break. San Diego’s rotation is entire once more and pitching lights out in September, and the deadline-bolstered bullpen is among the sport’s most imposing. All of the items are there for a deep run.
Why they will not: Nearly as good because the pitching employees has been, it is by no means nice going into the postseason with the ninth inning feeling unsettled. Robert Suarez is an All-Star this 12 months, however he has a 6.00 ERA and three blown saves in September and has allowed hits in 11 of his previous 14 appearances. Michael King has performed a significant function within the rotation’s success, however he is in uncharted territory having already shattered his earlier excessive in innings pitched. Behind him, a season-ending damage to Ha-Seong Kim now will power the Padres to shift Xander Bogaerts again to shortstop. It is nitpicking, however that is not a perfect defensive situation in San Diego. — Rowan Kavner
5. Atlanta Braves
World Sequence odds: +2500
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: Chris Sale, set to win his first profession Cy Younger, is as deadly a weapon because it will get within the playoffs. The 1-2 punch of Sale and Max Fried, plus righty Reynaldo Lopez and the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, makes Atlanta scary in a 3 or five-game collection. Pitching wins in October, and Atlanta’s arms have the most effective ERA within the majors — sure, topping even Seattle’s pitching employees. No crew has come near matching the employees’s complete strikeouts, the bullpen is powerful and your entire unit is able to carrying the Braves to their second championship since 2021. Plus, it looks like Atlanta excels when its expectations are low – à la ‘21 with out Ronald Acuña Jr. It isn’t like issues went nicely once they flashed the most effective regular-season document in baseball final 12 months, solely to break down in opposition to their rival Phillies within the NLDS. Maybe, popping out of the wild-card facet of the postseason bracket will probably be extra very best.
Why they will not: Then once more, possibly this simply is not their 12 months. As a lot credit score because the Braves ought to obtain for making it this far with out their stars, that is precisely the time of 12 months when it is laborious to disregard the onslaught of accidents to Acuña, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and even A.J. Minter. The Braves do not have as a lot depth as they’re used to counting on within the playoffs, and that would come again to harm them. Their offense is one other typical space of reliability that has underwhelmed this 12 months. By way of wRC+, Marcell Ozuna is the one hitter within the Braves lineup to look among the many prime 45 hitters within the majors this season. Atlanta’s on-base share is simply league common this 12 months, and that may very well be particularly regarding within the postseason in opposition to the highest pitchers within the sport. — Deesha Thosar
6. New York Mets
World Sequence odds: +3200
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: Grimace is decided to throw out the primary pitch in a World Sequence sport. The Mets’ quirky season has revealed a way of camaraderie and chemistry that may be the stuff of magic for World Sequence champions. There’s something to be mentioned of the membership digging itself out of the basement in Could to changing into one of many hottest groups in baseball, led by a first-year supervisor in Carlos Mendoza who expertly guided a sinking ship to October baseball. Stars like Francisco Lindor (having fun with an MVP caliber season), J.D. Martinez (2018 World Sequence winner), and Edwin Díaz (among the finest closers in baseball) might be harmful within the playoffs. However Pete Alonso has been considerably of a sleeping bear this season who very nicely may get up simply in time earlier than his upcoming free company to be the wildest of the bunch, but.
Why they will not: Whereas Sean Manaea and Luis Severino had bounce-back seasons that had been crucial to the Mets clinching a playoff spot, it stays regarding whether or not the rotation total is a sufficiently big menace to go deep into October, not to mention win the Fall Traditional. Manaea has a 15.26 ERA in three profession playoff outings (two begins). Severino has traditionally struggled to step up in huge video games, giving up 25 earned runs in 43.2 playoff innings with the Yankees. Behind these two arms, the sturdiness of Jose Quintana, who pitches higher with longer relaxation durations, is one thing of an unknown. And southpaw David Peterson is coming off an up-and-down September and lacks playoff expertise. — Deesha Thosar
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
World Sequence odds: +4800
Why they’re going to be 2024 World Sequence champions: The D-backs have dedicated the fewest errors within the sport once more, but when final 12 months’s NL champs are going to complete the job in 2024, it is an offense that ranks within the prime two in each slash line class that will probably be main the best way. All-Star starter Ketel Marte has the third-highest OPS amongst certified NL gamers, Christian Walker ought to have been an All-Star, Joc Pederson has an OPS over .900, Eugenio Suarez has 29 homers in a bounce-back 12 months, Randal Grichuk is hitting over .400 this month and Corbin Carroll is discovering his type. It isn’t a fluke that the Snakes have MLB’s prime offense for the reason that break.
Why they will not: Because the offense is flourishing, the pitching employees is floundering. D-backs pitchers have the best ERA in MLB this month. The problems are widespread. The bullpen has an ERA over 6.00 and the rotation has an ERA over 5.00 in September — a shock contemplating the items Arizona added to attempt to treatment each points. Newcomers Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez have been alternative degree gamers this season, every with an ERA over 5.00. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly demonstrated final 12 months they do not want a lot assist to hold the squad’s rotation, however the bullpen simply would not look succesful proper now of offering a lot assist. — Rowan Kavner
Rowan Kavner is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand coated the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved again to the West Coast in 2014. Observe him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. She beforehand coated the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Each day Information. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Lengthy Island and now lives in Queens. Observe her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]
really useful
Braves-Mets doubleheader to find out the ultimate NL wild-card spots
Shohei Ohtani strikes nearer to batting chief Luis Arraez in Triple Crown bid
How one can watch the 2024 MLB Playoffs: TV channels, streaming, dates, occasions
2024 MLB MVP race, odds: Aaron Decide, Shohei Ohtani will doubtless win AL, NL MVPs
2024 MLB Playoff format: What number of groups, Wild Card seeding, extra
Shohei Ohtani falls wanting Triple Crown in Dodgers’ season finale
Marlins half methods with 2023 NL Supervisor of the 12 months Skip Schumaker
2024 MLB ROY odds: Merrill, Cowser keep leads in NL, AL races
Get extra from Main League Baseball Observe your favorites to get details about video games, information and extra